Federal Reser2026-10-25 18:23:52$11 Billion in Bitcoin Options Set to Expire Ahead of Fed MeetingThe Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting is drawing market attention as several macro events line up over three days. According to CME FedWatch, the probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged on Oct. 28 Eastern Time stands at 90.6%. The same tool shows a 68% probability of a rate hike in December. Another key data point arrives on Oct. 29 Eastern Time, when the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index is scheduled for release. Market expectations put the year-over-year increase at 3.7%, above the Fed’s 2% target. On Oct. 30 Eastern Time, roughly $11 billion in Bitcoin options are set to expire. The timing places a major crypto derivatives event immediately after the Fed meeting and the PCE release, with traders watching both monetary policy signals and inflation data closely.20
Federal Reser2026-10-08 04:19:01CME FedWatch shows 18.3% odds of a Fed rate hike on Oct. 28CME FedWatch data shows the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike on Oct. 28 has fallen to 18.3% after weaker employment and inflation readings, while the probability of a rate cut remains at 0%. Markets now broadly expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged this month. The shift followed a September nonfarm payrolls report showing only 29,000 jobs added, far below the 90,000 expected, and an August core PCE reading that rose 0.2% month over month, also below expectations. Techub, citing BeInCrypto, said Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams have also recently signaled no urgency to act again. At the same time, minutes from the September meeting showed that most FOMC members believe another rate hike in 2026 could be appropriate. Goldman Sachs now expects any hike to be pushed back to December. The report added that holding rates steady could temporarily remove one threat facing Bitcoin, though elevated long-term yields and other factors continue to cloud the outlook.460
Federal Reser2026-10-08 00:52:15Fed minutes show all 19 policymakers backed September hike, with most seeing one more increase this yearMinutes from the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 15-16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting showed unanimous support among 19 senior officials for a 25-basis-point rate increase, lifting the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4.00%. The document said most participants believed another increase could be appropriate before year-end, while also stressing that future decisions would depend on incoming data and would be taken meeting by meeting. The minutes, released Wednesday, highlighted a hawkish consensus on the September move even as officials differed on the rationale behind it. Some saw the hike as a form of risk management, providing insurance against inflation staying above the 2% goal if demand remained stronger than expected or supply conditions worsened again. Others argued that a higher policy rate was necessary to keep recent shocks, including energy prices, from spreading into a broader range of goods and services prices. Market pricing has shifted since the meeting. After weaker-than-expected employment data and comments from several officials signaling there was no need to rush, investors now see the Fed as more likely to hold rates steady at its Oct. 27-28 meeting and raise again in December. CME FedWatch shows the implied probability of a 25-basis-point move in October has fallen to below 20%, down from about 70% in the days after the September decision.390
U.S. Treasury2026-10-07 08:57:43U.S. Treasury yields climb in European trading, with the 10-year back above 5.3%U.S. stock index futures were weak during Wednesday’s European trading hours as Treasury yields moved higher, according to ChainCatcher. The 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5.3%, while the 30-year yield hovered around 5.69%. ChainCatcher said the move was driven by persistent inflation concerns, a widening fiscal deficit, and increased AI bond issuance, all of which kept yields elevated. At the same time, escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher, adding to inflation pressure. CME FedWatch data showed traders were assigning only about a 22% probability to a rate hike in October. The combination of softer equity futures, higher long-dated yields, and rising energy prices pointed to continued caution across macro markets during the session.310
Federal Reser2026-10-06 16:59:58CME FedWatch shows 19.4% odds of a 25 bps Fed rate hike in OctoberCME FedWatch data showed on Oct. 7 that markets were pricing in an 80.6% probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged at its October meeting. The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike stood at 19.4%. The update was reported by BlockBeats under the policy and regulation category. No additional details were provided in the source beyond the latest probability breakdown from CME FedWatch.330
gold2026-10-06 07:55:44Gold edges higher in European morning trade as October rate hike odds stay lowGold posted a modest gain in European morning trading as investors moved toward safe-haven assets. ING analysts said elevated U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar could cap further upside in bullion prices. Separately, the CME FedWatch tool showed traders pricing the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October at just 22%. The move in gold came against a macro backdrop where defensive positioning supported demand, while tighter financial conditions continued to limit how far prices could rise. The update points to a market balancing near-term haven demand with pressure from high yields and dollar strength.390
Federal Reser2026-10-05 03:44:09CME FedWatch shows 82.3% odds of no rate change by the Fed in OctoberCME FedWatch data cited by BlockBeats on Oct. 5 showed markets assigning an 82.3% probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged through October. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike by that point stood at 17.7%. For December, the same data showed a 17.3% probability that rates will remain unchanged. Markets priced in a 68.7% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point increase by then, while the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point increase stood at 14%. The figures reflect current market-implied expectations tracked by CME FedWatch.560
Federal Reser2026-10-04 04:22:49CME FedWatch puts odds of unchanged Fed rate by October at 77.9%CME FedWatch data shows markets assigning a 77.9% probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged through October, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike stands at 22.1%. For December, the probability of no rate change drops to 14.8%. The odds of a cumulative 25 basis point increase rise to 67.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point increase is 17.9%. The figures were cited by Odaily in a brief market update.1170
